🎰 How Bad Can Poker Variance Get? In | SplitSuit Poker

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So I've surfed the internet and Pokertracker's forums for about an hour with no luck. I have the PT4 trail version and cannot find any stat dealing.


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Where the Hell is Standard Deviation on PT4? - Gambling and Probability - Probability Theory Forum
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Without getting mired in the details, the standard deviation of our Figure 4. PokerTracker StdDev(BB/) vs. VPIP% for Veteran online.


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So I've surfed the internet and Pokertracker's forums for about an hour with no luck. I have the PT4 trail version and cannot find any stat dealing.


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Customize your poker HUD to focus on 1 statistic at a time

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You can easily get your ChipEV from tracking software like PokerTracker 4, but for the curious among you it is calculated as follows: ChipEV.


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Standard Deviation - Explained and Visualized

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You want the standard deviation over a sample of hands and we have it over 1 hand now. Variance for independent events are additive.


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How To Calculate The Standard Deviation

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That really depends on your true win rate and standard deviation. Using a poker variance calculator I was able to find out. Winning poker players.


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HUD Swarleyy - Pokertracker 4

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You want the standard deviation over a sample of hands and we have it over 1 hand now. Variance for independent events are additive.


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You want the standard deviation over a sample of hands and we have it over 1 hand now. Variance for independent events are additive.


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How to Setup Your Poker HUD in Less Than 5 Minutes

But is this true? Excellent article, thank you very much, it has helped me understand a little better than variance. The poker gods are all mathematicians. These swings can affect our attitude, perhaps putting us on tilt, which can affect our win rate. We can see that his average session profit is very small compared to the swings he experiences from session to session; his mean profit was 4. From this we can calculate the standard deviation of his time-dependent profit, which is 2. These players are more skillful than the average player, so we might conclude that better players have a lower variance. LAS VEGAS -- Steve Selbrede is an engineer who has been pursuing his passion for poker rigorously since retiring from the tech industry in Silicon Valley, where he was an accomplished innovator in semiconductors and nanotechnology. Other than tilt, there is no reason for a cash game player to manipulate his variance to be more profitable. But the principle is the same:. Figure 4 does not tell us whether better players have low variance. Learn how your comment data is processed. His actual net profit at any point can be compared to his expected profit at that point dashed line , which produces a new dataset. Figure 1. But variance is affected by our playing style. By Steve Selbrede. Too many players think variance is getting screwed on the River. Figure 3. Liberty wins each amount. Figure 5. When they play a hand, they nearly always raise rather than limp. June 15, am The first sentence exposes the whole problem. Liberty is an online cash game player with a large PokerTracker database. When we flop a flush draw; they will complete our flush on the turn Although mathematical variance can significantly impact our short-term results, they approach their natural level in the long term. We can also explore the relationship between variance and preflop aggression, where we find that:. View All ammje wrote June 15, am Excellent article, thank you very much, it has helped me understand a little better than variance. The distribution of hand sessions for Mr. My goal here is to explain cash game variance so that you will better understand the impact variance has on tournament poker strategy, the subject of my next article. Did you know about our poker forum?{/INSERTKEYS}{/PARAGRAPH} Without getting mired in the details, the standard deviation of our distribution is just the square root of the mathematical variance. So Mr. June 15, Poker News. {PARAGRAPH}{INSERTKEYS}But variance has a mathematical description with two main causes: 1 the poker gods, and 2 our playing style. He's the author of six books on poker strategy, including his most recent, Tournament Poker for the Rest of Us , in which he offers his unique analytical perspective showing the science behind low-stakes tournament action. The first sentence exposes the whole problem. His time-dependent sigma of 2. Yet they are neither the tightest nor most aggressive players. Figure 2. Name required. Figure 2 expresses this data differently, by plotting how often Mr. The distribution of Mr. This plot shows no correlation between Aggression Ratio and variance. June 4, Legal Matters. By Jon Sofen. By Johnny Kampis. We can study many other poker stats, such as preflop 3Betting, flop CBetting, floating and bet sizing. The dashed line is his expected profit at each point. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Email required. This is in stark contrast to tournament variance, which I will discuss in my next article. June 4, Casino. He has an overall profit of 4, BB, or 4. Leave a Comment Cancel reply Your message. We find that his average win rate was 4. June 5, Online Poker. And the longer he plays, the lower this sigma drops and the more confident he can be. Yet, their variance is nearly the same. Discuss all the latest poker news in the CardsChat forum. Better players tend to be tighter than average, but also more aggressive. Figure 4. The vertical axis is the profit for each session. No matter who we are, they gift us pocket aces every hands on average , precisely 0.